Trade100! Week Ending 05 October

Our Maiden Century(With thanks to Giphy.com)

What does it mean? Statistically 100 events can have some meaning attached for analysis. I think we have about 5 losing trades, by the way. In due course a summary of these 100 trades will be made available. A lot to get through this week as the interminable FTSE torpor finally got a kick in the rear end. Trade 99 was based on the idea of torpor which is why it was closed out on Wednesday for 51,having paid 30.

Here’s The Week:

The Chart Says It All

Some bloke in the pub* said ” Theresa May’s looking like Brexit’s sorted”. This sent the GBP/USD soaring( in their minds it soared)  $1.2929 to $1.3124 =1.5% and the FTSE plummeted……….2.7%. Again this is because UK exports become more expensive, allegedly. Though if you are buying a Range Rover for £83,000 you probably aren’t too worried, by another thousand quid or so. Other exports are available.

Summary of Trades 98 &99

I commented on these and 99 closed out for great profit of 70%. Exit  is what?….. Exit is EVERYTHING. That trade reversed when the FTSE made its big move. We believe the trade only works when going either for time decay in a quiet market or a move of around 2%. We entered for the time decay and got out. You could have taken the opposite position, on Thursday and smashed it again. Trade 98, you ask. I ‘ll tell you- these rely on time decay as well as position and while the market has tanked the trade is still only worth about 25, and we paid 23. Patience dear readers, patience. Or close out. The increase in volatility has not greatly served us,and it was a tough trade to take as the market was giving us nothing.

Education Education Education

I had the privilege to attend a quick free course aimed, naturally at recruiting potential traders with deep pockets. And lofty ambitions. A couple of points did however pique my interest. The keys to success. Not my research- may have been Dr. Emmet Brown for all I know. However it was expressed thus: You need belief in yourself. You take massive action, and finally. You leverage resources. Curiously the course did not mention leveraged trading. We leverage our trading.

Anyhow,I don’t believe in myself- I’m a rubbish trader, but I don’t need belief. Options are mathematical, the numbers make sense. I don’t use voodoo, or exotic analysis of wiggly lines, I take a simplistic view of the market and take the trades when the numbers work.The other point of interest- forex trades from Sunday night 10:00pm to Friday night 10:00 pm. I trade for maybe 2 hours a month.

Other Interesting Stuff

My current reading – Antifragile by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.- Thought provoking,and a huge read.

A vaued resource and internet chum: https://thomsettsguide.com/traders-control/

And this: https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/beautiful-minds/the-role-of-luck-in-life-success-is-far-greater-than-we-realized/

And these stats: 15% of fund managers beat the market, but 96% of mutual funds fail to beat the market. All this with their massive unfair advantages and QE.

So, our key ingredients for success- we are not fund managers, we are not mutual funds, and this: The more we trade the ‘luckier’ we get. But now…

Trade100!!!!!!!!!!

For once this is a trade in progress, with real money, of course. So, here’s what I did on Wed 26th September. I sold the 7650 call for 18 and I bought the 7350/7250 put spread for (32-17)= 15. So a small credit of 3. As the market moved in my favour, that call is now priced at 2, the spread is priced at 43. But…. alway expecting the dreary ‘buy the dip’ brigade to lurch in, I sold the 7250/7150 spread for 9.5. I now own a butterfly. The trade potential is still a possible 100, I can close out the calls for 2, ( the trade is currently worth about 21). Hindsight is 20:20 vision and maybe  I should have sat on my hands on Thursday. I can still make at least another 20 or so. Did I trade well? Not really. Did I manage risk? Yes**.

Trade100

I will keep you posted and if FTSE stays around 7250 I will be a very happy trader. Still need my Oct/Nov trade however and I may keep that under wraps until next week.This milestone means a lot, and I hope gives us some credibility. The financial world is full of charlatans. All we try to do is give you the truth with real trades,real prices. Our aim? Solely to educate and enlighten, and for this we ask only loyalty to this site. Comment, argue,give us some feedback. Most of all, love the journey to profitable options trading.

 

 

*I believe rumours move markets, facts come a distant second place.

** Yes the calls are naked but there is a plan as I never just sell nakeds in isolation.