219 W/E 07May Chinese Rocket Week

That Was The Week -Non Farms Bad, Market Jumps (of Course)

graphic from https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar

Here’s the weekly unemployment new claims agains the monthly new jobs created. To the untrained eye(me!)this looks like losing 2 million jobs a month versus adding 1/4 million. Quite why this is of any value is anyone’s guess but you can at least be confident the unemployment claims are legit numbers. Though you’d expect unemployment to be at least 25% on this basis. Thus the stock market is not bothered by any of this. However, inflation may be rearing its ugly head.

So, we’ll presume it’s wild enthusiasm that’s driving the market and the party continues.

I hope this link works. As always there’s a ton of free and variable stuff on the ‘net and I try to filter out the chaff. https://youtu.be/eWhab2i_sbo

Larry McMillan is a legend in the options world and ofcourse options are the tail that wag the dog. Hence using options data can be helpful in making trading decisions- the uppy/downy stuff.  FYI you may remember I like to keep a running total of up days v down days and currently FTSE has an up bias but S&P now has to date 54 up days 39 down days. Each calendar year only 51% of days are up. I’ve seen >17 up days bias in the early 2000s however.

Distraction Trades

Dax – two good trades- (longs)  300pts+ Sometimes the patience pays off

DOGEGBP.……………………….now 0.513  -you may remember I failed to buy at 0.038.  The price may be academic if you cannot get your money out. Just sayin’. I don’t wish ill of anyone making money in any market.

 

Those Legacy Trades and Trade 219, Combo!

Trade 216 Risk/Reward is Now A poor Prospect (Apr 16th)

Our starting position was a long straddle:   7050 call 65.5, 7050 put 129.5.

19/20 Apr

It got bumpy but we locked in a great profit- and hopefully you have seen the comments section in real time: So- as promised we leg in by selling 2x 7150 calls at 36 =72
we buy 1×6850 put at 48= 48
then we sell 2×6950 puts at 91=182(market has dropped but only 40 points)
We now have a put butterfly and a call ratio spread,
and a small credit of 206-195= 11.
We use that to roll up 1  short 7150 call to 7200. Thus our risk is out further to 7300

As of 23 Apr settlement the put butterfly = 19.5, The call ladder 13.5. We run this for fun,too

30 Apr  7050 call 45.5 and the put 145

7150 call 17.5  7200 call 10     6950 put 92.5  6850 put 58.5

Call position 45.5 -( 17.5+10)= 18  credit   Put position   145+ 58.5 minus( 92.5×2)= 18 credit

Now…. All positions, when tallied,  show a profit of around 40 

217 If You can’t be Original…. 

When it makes no sense to do something exotic we sell a  6650 put 31.5 and a call spread  7000 52.5, 7050 35 

This is of course a Jade Lizard, selling the call spread and a put to give us ±50 credit.( ok it’s 49) Enjoy.

Now 6650 put 25.5 and the call spread 67, 45.5 = 47

About 34 now -not looking great after this sudden melt up, but we make some small coin.  It’s a hold to expiry, though

218  20 days to go, Nuts in May pt 2

Caveat- this is a pure  exercise and not for the faint hearted. Our remit is a new trade every week, so………………. once again, buckle up                                 We are buying the 7050 put for 145  and selling 2x 6950 put at  92.5 (185) A credit of 40. This is inspired by the CBOE Webcast.

So…. 3.5 to close out- what the??????? Huge WIN, but  there could be a whole lot more as we own the spread between 7050 and 6950.

219 I don’t Make Predictions and I never will

7200 call 28  6950 put 23 

Well, so far every crazy trade has made £££££, so here goes- it’s a combo,(combination)aka a risk reversal. We are selling the calls and buying the puts . It’s a cynical poke at a bubble, and may get ugly as markets shrug off every bad bit of data, news or impending catastrophe as China generates 27% of the world’s greenhouse gasses, and this puppy is hurtling earthwards!