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Trade 126 That Was Another Odd Week, Ending 05April

Trade 126 That Was Another Odd Week, Ending 05April

The Week’s Charts: My simplistic view of price and volatility of the underlying- do we need more? I accept I have a bias towards the downside which does not often coincide with market action. Trading with a bias is like cycling no-hands. It’s no problem until you hit a major curve or a bump in […]

Trade125 Week Ending 29 March Ex-Brexit Day

Trade125 Week Ending 29 March Ex-Brexit Day

  That Was The Week We were supposed to leave the EU, at the moment we have no consensus on voting on which bits to vote on. I hope when I leave my energy supplier the process is a tad less tortuous. Voters on both sides of the ‘B’ debate are hacked off. This trader […]

Trade 124 Week Ending 22March

Trade 124 Week Ending 22March

Return Of The Vol That Was The Week Curiously while everyone is running around proclaiming Friday’s move is a game changer, FTSE is actually up 22 points on the week. Investors cannot stand a down day- just look at the track record of up days this year. I did say last week it makes no […]

Trade 123 Week Ending 15March

Trade 123 Week Ending 15March

That Was The Week We noted that Brexit hysteria was conspicuous by its absence. In fact the market was positively serene. So, 5 consecutive up days, up 1.74% and on the week the £sterling is up 2.16%. Don’t worry, be happy. Thus, bewildered does not even come close to the Brexit sentiment, and this trader is sidelined […]

Trade122 Week ending 08March

Trade122 Week ending 08March

That Was The Week- Not Much To Endear One To FTSE So…the market drops 3 points but the last 2 down days saw volatility shrink.  We understand this goes against perceived wisdom. Same as stock market versus political turmoil /bond yields/ currencies/ commodities/ gold/ CNBC. So,are there any reliable metrics that can give us clue? Traders […]

Trade 121 Week Ending 01March

Trade 121 Week Ending 01March

That Was The Week We saw a drop of 1% and barely a wobble given the level of crazy. Traders are however, duly concerned about the low volatility as VIX also scrapes along the bottom- currently 13.57% which equates to low vol in mid 2018. We would like to use IV ranking, or levels that […]

Trade120 Week ending 22 February

Trade120 Week ending 22 February

  FTSE down a miserly 58 points on the week, as vol drops big time. That Was The Week So….nothing troubling, just another uppy downy week in the face of so much impending chaos. As per usual I get a great deal of emails but here’s something that challenged my ideas and bias: I Also […]

Trade119 Week Ending 15February

Trade119 Week Ending 15February

That Was The Week FTSE rose from 7071 to 7236 up 2.3% because everything’s peachy. Typically, as ‘permabear’ I always assume the market is wildly optimistic, as real results often disappoint. So, retail sales seem to have bounced back as people bagged the 70% off bargains. Thus I think if shops can sell stuff at […]

Trade 118 Week ending  08 February-an apology

Trade 118 Week ending 08 February-an apology

Apology Sorry- I confused last week’s trade with 116 when it should have been 117. We will look at them both shortly. Meanwhile: So- What’s Going On? Europe in disarray-desperate attempts to save Deutsche Bank, the DAX has big down days, the £sterling barely blinks. I am naturally cynical and firmly believe people talk up […]

Trade117 Week Ending 01February

Trade117 Week Ending 01February

Noooooooo!!!! Don’t Take Our Volatility The vol Grinch has been at it again. From 16 to 13 that is a big ouch! FTSE rose 3.098%, to be pedantic. So what’s the takeaway this week? Brexit, chaos in Parliament as another historic vote becomes ‘simply historic’. The £ has risen too, and so have bonds, and […]