Business As Usual Resumed This Week
Big apology as there was no contribution last week due to a certain trader being away courtesy of Thomas Cook (last known share price 3.45p). I should have suspected there might be issues but when sun and sea and history all beckoned, the rose tinted specs were ON! I should have said something previously and for that I humbly apologise. Stupidly I thought I might be able to work overseas, like proper folk. This trader also thought the smartphone would have service…..
So, Back To Business and FTSE
Well a couple of up days came as no surprise-the market loves political mayhem. Despite prizing their own self worth, politicians do not make the world go round. Only money does that, and we have seen some cash coming in to buy the index once again. Surprise (our main weapon) was not on my radar, in part due to the up/down day count. Currently by my reckoning +97 -89. The upward bias usually runs to >10 up days against the downs.This is only in my own analysis and you may choose to ignore it. Number crunching/data mining? No siree Bob, wet finger in the air stuff.
Curiously in 2019 we have seen a 1,000 point rise from monthly low to high, and 7 months out of 9 were up. The political machines have churned away and made little impact despite the doom mongers. Of course the last trading day of Sept could see a drop >3.04% making Sept the traditional down month. Anyone fancy trading that?
Couldn’t resist posting the above link from this week. Bankers, bankers-don’t you ever learn? You will always be found out. I am currently at odds with a UK bank and have filed a case with the Financial Ombudsman for ineptitude/flagrant disregard for security protocols. However banks provide liquidity and we like that.
How Did We Do? Those Legacy Trades
TRADE 146
Owners we are, of a put Butterfly buy (Sept) 7000( 86)/ sell 6900(63×2) / buy 6800(46.5). 86+46.5 – (63×2) =6.5 Debit
Therefore, risk limited to premium paid, 6.5 max reward 93.5 ………we’d take 25. Last week worth 2– now ? Let it go
Loser for 6.5.
Trade 147 previously closed out
Trade148 Combo Lizard Thing!
The trade is an expectation of FTSE staying at least below 7400, and ideally around 7100-7200.
Sell 7400 Call 14 Buy 7200 put 31 7100 sell put 15 DEBIT (31-15) -14= 2
7284 seemed to be the low on Friday 20th, so I can only suspect this was a break even-certainly nothing went against the trade
And Then….Trade 149- Tasty Research Be Damned, Playing Devil’s Avocado
7350 straddle 80.5 selling the call 53 and put 27.5
Expiry seemed to be around 7355 I am unable to get the data but….. a fun winner.
Trade150 -Yes,150 Trades -Count the Losers <10.Not ONE Disaster-and losses were small.
This is not about bragging rights,time and again I like to point out the following: Understand your risk and options will reward you for being right,being wrong, but mostly for being patient. Keep it within your understanding-long spreads for example,but never naked sales.
So…. what to do? Ratio calendar with 7250 puts .
We are selling 2xOct expiry and buying 1xNov (88-(34.5×2) )= 19 Debit
Logic of the trade? See below:
Theta is (2.0052×2) against 1.5198= 2.4906. We like that.The chart suggests there is support around that 7250 area, and if the FTSE takes off upwards, well we can mitigate any losses. We could see a nice profit inside a week but can run this for the remaining 19 days of the expiry cycle.
And here’s a gratuitous holiday snap that I took.
