That Was The Week Stuff Went Wrong
We had outages, hacks, server meltdowns and a reminder that our hi tech infrastructures are not infallible. Iran seems to have intimidated the US as treasury secretary and others hunker down in military bunkers. Chinese spies, Iranian spies, Russian spy ships. I’d venture to say this may be nothing new, but the World seems to be more uncomfortable. Those who remember the 80s and Reagan and Chernenko facing off in a Frankie Goes to Hollywood video may look back fondly. However we were, like today, advised to stock up on vitals like water and tinned and dried food. I would like to see dehydrated beer for one thing. Water’s nice, but it’s not beer. A few comforts in a crisis go a long way.
Meanwhile UK’s GDP grew 0.7% in the last quarter but inflation probably flatters those numbers and certainly in my world people are still buying but whining more about the cost. The UK famously lets cheeky pricing to persist, while having a moan at the back of the room. This made compelling viewing https://www.channel4.com/programmes/ai-probably-nothing-to-worry-about. While the benefits of A.I may be enormous the obvious downside is the impending redundancy of humans. You can buy or lease a self driving Tesla and set up you taxi business with just one car should you choose. The legality and even the wisdom of allowing this are both unknowns. Got $30k to spare? Perhaps current taxi drivers might consider this as a better way of living! Let the chips take the strain!
In The Inbox
Here’s Larry: https://mailchi.mp/optionstrategist/the-option-strategist-weekly-updater-4866435?e=5f15d5ff5d There’s old traders and there’s bold traders, Larry’s still here.
CBOE gives us insights into 0DTE options and I have to confess to being a dinosaur but clearly there are opportunities. https://lightspeed.com/webinar/live-webinar/Inside-0DTE-How%20Same-Day-Options-Are-Changing-the-Market
Distraction Trades
ADA was $0.1825 now $0.1621 more, uglier downside
XRP was $1.1614 now $0.9918 I like this source https://coinmarketcap.com
DAX : Yikes! Massive spikes so 2 losers, -80, 2 no entries, one huge win 300, nett 220 New method got us into the trade which never looked back (entry at 08:08am Mon 9th Nov)
UK Gilts Were £15.45 now £15.27 This is based on the Vanguard ETF. (VGOV) A rocky week . Remember this ETF has a yield of 4.61%
Silver: Using Wisdom Tree Physical Silver(PHAG) was $47.24 now $44.69 Down and down……
Legacy Trades 424, 487-491 and New Trade 492
Trade 424 High Roller, This is a Trade Gone Wrong
PRECIS: We started from a July 2025 losing trade as below. Short calls are rarely a good idea.This was a ratio spread 8450/8650 calls
In summary we have an old trade from July 2025 which was a loss of 1741 against the credits taken in, of 422
(Rolling credit as of Sept2026 now 1408)
Previously 8400 call 2266.5 8600 call 2067.5×2 = 1868.5
Then 8400 call 2308.5 8600 call 2109 = 1909.5
Then 2070.5, 1871(x2) = 1671.5 Position improving
Was 2164, 1964×2 = 1764 annoying and we need to roll soon, currently 2170.5, 1972(x2)= 1774.5
Ouch! We got slammed, rolling meant we took in a miserly credit of 10 [ total credit now 432] But the horror show got ugly: 2492 and 2293(x2) gives us: 2094
Last week: 8400 call 2272 8600 call 2073.5 x2 Gives us: 1875
Was: 8400 call 2328 8600call 2129×2 =1930 We will of course be looking to roll this.
Now: 2258 2058.5×2 = 1859 roll for 1890 gives us 31
And so we have Dec 8400 Call 2285, 8600 Call 2087 and total credit 463 since initial trade
8400 call 2530.5, 8600 call 2332×2 gives us 2133.5 a very ugly outcome but we persist of course
Trade 487 Nothing Make sense – November Expiry cycle Beckons
With only one week, or 5 trading days in October, we look at November and this means the US Mid Terms chaos may ensue. Let’s place a simple put ratio spread, so we’re not taking a full naked put position 10200 71.5 9900 37.5 (x2) credit 3.5 Max profit 300 risk at 9600. This is a recurrent theme but frankly these trades have done well over decades for this idiot. Remember the markets will see wild swings as events unfold with certain ‘World leaders’
Was 10200 Put is 27.5 and the 9900 Put 15.5 x2 Gives us -3.5 We now run this to expiry we had 5 weeks to go.
Then 10200 put 53.5 and the 9900 put 29×2= -4.5 So, Volatility is picking up
Was 10200 put 30 9900 put 16.5×2 = minus 3 No comment, just looks a bit lost.
Now: 10200 put 29 9900 put 13.5 = 2 Might as well run it. Dismal
Dismal plus vat. Who knows with a few days to expiry.
Trade 488, We Can Use Trade 484
So we have the long Put spread 10400/10250 42.5 and 30.5 Can we use this? We can sell another 10250 put for 30.5. We can sell the 10400 put for 42.5 and buy the December 10400/10250 spread for 80-62=18.
A) sell 10250 put gives us Nov10400 84, Nov 10250 59.5×2= -25 Was: 48.5 and 33.5×2= -19.5 Now Nov10400 put 52 10250put 34 = -14 Worthless We keep our credit 30.5 WIN!
B) Dec spread 10400put 132 10250put 102 =30 Nov 10250put 59.5 gives us -29.5 Was 33.5 for the short put Dec 10400put 99.5, 10250 put 75.5 = – 9.5
Was: Dec spread 10400 put 119.5 10250 put 90 Nov short put 59.5 gives us -30 Nov put 2.5 Dec spread 38.5-28=10.5 ( We sold the Nov put for 42.5 and bought the spread for 18= 24.5)
Both have not exactly shone, but we run to expiry or big profit.
Trade 489 Is This For Real?
Call prices seem to make no sense to me 
We are going to buy one 10950 call and sell 2x 11000 calls. As shown, the prices are 51 and 39×2, which gives us a credit of 27. We have risk at the unlikely level of 11050+27 = 11077
Now nothing is impossible and a tidal wave of cash may flee the US before November expiry on 20th. On the other hand it’s a gift of 27!
This week: 10950 calls 43, 11000 calls 31 = -19 No need to panic. Although…..
Was : 10950 calls 21 and 11000 calls 14.5 x2 gives us -8 In profit but might consider early close
Now: 42.5 and 26×2 = -9.5 With the market somehow having a buying frenzy we’d close out and stay safe 27-9.5= 17.5 credit
OR:We can buy back one of the calls for 26, so we cannot lose, and the 10950/11000 spread might make more than the current 16.5 Would you though?…..
Trade 490 Nov Options have some Juice in Them Still
Hallowe’en 2.0 it’s another pitchfork,because…… why not? I think many of us see little upside prospect yet the index seems robust. This is not a classic pitchfork it’s throwing out the rule book, in part but we’re nett sellers while the volatility looks rubbish. You could call it an unbalanced out of the money straddle. Deltas make this look a tad bullish, remember put deltas are negative. So overall it’s tiny positive delta.Theta is yuuuge, however. Risk: we take in 295.5 plus 65.5×3= 492. Risk to the upside is therefore 10942, to the downside 10500 – 492/3= 164, so 10336 is it.
229.5 and 70 x3 =439.5 Profit: 52.5 We’ll run it.
Ouch! 413 and 5.5×3= 429.5 we still make 492-429.5= 62.5 WIN!
Trade 491 Time To Get Jaded
We’re going to place a cheeky Jade Lizard. We sell a call spread and a put so that the premium equals the upside risk. Thus we sell the 10750 call and buy the 10800 call. ( 77-58= 19). We now sell the 10250 put for 34. Thus we have a credit of 53. Zero upside risk, downside risk at 10200. I have no idea where this market is headed given the US political situation.
Dear oh dear- 175-136.5 for the call spread and 2.5 for the put 41.5 and we took in a credit of 53 Close out or hang in there? Personally I’d close out and take the little WIN
Trade 492 Dec Trade and Santa May Be Lurking
Keeping it simple we go for a December put ratio spread buying the 10600 put 62 and selling 2x 10500 put for 48.5 x2= 97. Credit 35 risk at 10400
Glossary:
There are two types of options: Puts, give you the right but not the obligation to sell the underlying asset . Calls give you the right, but not the obligation to buy the underlying asset.
When you sell those options, the opposite happens, with puts you get stock ‘put‘ to you at an unfavourable price (or not) and calls you get the stock you own taken, or ‘called’ away. If you don’t own the stock you need to stump up the cash, but in both cases with the FTSE index they are cash settled at £10 a point, so losses and gains are uncomplicated.
Please read the links below for a more comprehensive explanation in simple terms. Options are about mindset, only a modicum of intelligence required.(I’m living proof)
For those new to options:
https://optionsinvesting.co.uk/special-edition-how-options-work-1/
https://optionsinvesting.co.uk/special-edition-how-options-work-2/
https://optionsinvesting.co.uk/how-options-work-page-3/
Contact: surreyhantstraders@gmail.com.
If there is anything you’d like help with, we all started somewhere and yes, it can be baffling. There are no stupid questions, give it a whirl. (AI gets things wrong, remember)
All opinions expressed here are not to be taken too seriously and all of the trades are for educational purposes only.