FTSE Drops, Reversal Trade Makes Serious coin this week
While the FTSE drops over 2% we may have seen a new low 5,739.5(futures) in classical charting this suggests another leg down. Who the heck knows, but here’s some parallel lines.
https://uk.investing.com/indices/uk-100-futures-historical-data
Like the recently manipulated silver price,(link below in £) if you could look at the fundamentals you’d see a very different picture. GBP has drifted lower which may actually have mitigated losses on FTSE. It’s not looking great all round. With global events overtaking the economic forces there have been fewer more dangerous trading environments in this trader’s view. So, expect a massive rally!
https://uk.investing.com/etfs/etfs-silver-chart
Perhaps it’s time to shorten our time horizon and look to trade weekly – oh wait, that’s what we do!
Distraction Trades Good Entry Signals, Poor Effort!
Bit of a wake up this week as your intrepid trader ventured into a bit of ‘hands on’ live discretionary trading. All I can say is thank goodness it was in demo mode. The simple entry method employed has worked very well, so tinkering with an imperfect system without even a modicum of forethought or preparation did not go well. Who knew online platforms do not interpret your thoughts? Expecting to close a position I accidentally doubled the trade, when the pressure was on.
This is fun and educational but brings me roundly back to options, where we take our time to consider all aspects of the trade and our time horizon is not dependent on executing at the precise moment. We place limit orders, and have the luxury of a huge variety of ways to close or adjust. DAX however remains the instrument of choice, while EURUSD is becoming a dismal prospect. GBPJPY looks far more tradeable.
Legacy Trades, Directional, Delta Neutral, Disconcerting!
Weekend strangler (Remember these close out on Monday)
Last week we got reckless and naked again. 5750 put 51 6175 call 53 = 104 19.5 and 136 =155.5
Another loser – However this is a long term proposition but is unlikely to have wins as big as losses. But does it win most of the time?
This week’s dangerous offering 6050 call 39 5450 put 36 gives us 75
Trade188 used the same strikes as previous week’s strangle but we sold the 6250call and bought the 5700 put for credit 1
So ….. last week the call was 32.5 and the put 43 a modest 10.5 profit. We ran it some more: put=86 and call= 8.5
MASSIVE WINNER!!! 78.5 profit
Trade 189 -One Trade 2 possible Routes.
We were selling 3 Oct 6200 calls at 45.5, buying 1 Nov 6200 call at 114.5
Then part 2 Delta neutrality, by selling a 5700 put for 43 and buying a 6250 call for 32.5. (Overall credit of 30 something)
So in its original form a three by one….. we have 62.5 -(12.5×3) =25. A credit of 22 to open and a lucky winning trade.
We then had to mess with it and now the long 6250 call is worth 8.5 but that short put is 86. Thus we have 47 credit+8.5 minus 86 which gives us 31.5 loss
Trade 190 Puts Again but a Debit Trade
Here’s the plan…. we buy the 5800/5700 put spread 120.5-86= 34.5. We pay for it in part by selling a 5400 put for 30.5. Our risk is thus at 5300 and we make money anywhere below 5796 at expiry, but may see a good profit before then. We have 21 days to expiry. Oh and it only cost us 4
