That Was The Week, The Whitehouse Fraud* Machine Enriched Insiders Again(Allegedly)
FTSE is also a proxy for the S&P500 and some big players have the inside track. It is beyond doubt that markets are being manipulated and American insiders are making $$$$$. As I pointed out last week, the bizarre price action at end of Friday’s trading presaged almost a year’s worth of FTSE rise. Yes, this is a rant, but with good reason. American commentators have no doubts about the corruption and insider trading. Absent Fox News, which is actually an ‘entertainment’ channel. Angry much? We are powerless in the UK and frankly, Keir Starmer has done well to deal with the childish insults from the orange idiot. When politics rampages unchecked into our world, yes it gets a mention here. I make no apology, this mocks us all. Trying to trade in what is now a jumble sale is problematic.
AI is Judge and Jury. The Win Rate is 86-88% but Losers are Big.
So, some of you may have already checked out the site using Gemini A.I. A personal investigation revealed that (no actual trades in 2020) the win rate is spectacular but the losses are ugly. I wish to address that by saying. 1. I take no credit for the win rate, that is a function of sensible options trading. 2. The staggering moves in recent times in global markets have led to some big losses, but the wins outpace them by a country mile. Even better if managed properly, for which I plead guilty. I don’t always check the progress of trades during the trading week, I have other issues to attend to. So there are times when cutting losses should have taken priority and it’s a fact that losses are what we focus on.We are running a losing trade for the very purpose of showing how it pans out.
Summary of A.I. analysis. Actually around 15% of trades are losers, but many are for tiny amounts. There have been a few whoppers, which mirror, somewhat, the personal trading journey of yours truly. However, in my own trading I tend to overestimate risk which is what has kept me in this arena for over 2 decades, providing a living and a pension. We hope that this is a helpful aid to people who have never seen a trade from the open to its path towards expiry/ closure. A.I. described this as a journal but with integrity as opposed to all the usual ‘guru’ promises and demands for money. This is FREE education and while CBOE and CME in America offer education, it’s rare in the UK. Personally I’d like to see the ice.com set up a few public events and perhaps some ‘warts and all’ Q&A sessions.
In The Inbox
An excellent freebie from STA. even if you’re skeptical of technical analysis this is excellent content.
CME offer: Ask us anything: https://view.the.cmegroup.com/?vawpToken=KIWIR6CI7MNELAKE2MNETTAUF4.110050
Distraction Trades
ADA was $0.2487 $0.2458
XRP was $1.3380 now $1.3186 nothing to get excited or concerned about. Is crypto still a thing?
DAX : Terrible week, 3 days no entries, 1 loser
UK Gilts Were £15.52 now £15.72 This is based on the Vanguard ETF. Last week’s comment: Gilt yields have been rising, but this seems to have found some buyers.
Silver: Using Wisdom Tree Physical Silver(PHAG) was I had another go at $64.10 now it’s $65.68 so we wait to collect a whopping profit of £40! It’s a smaller position, but I have no idea, it should have hit $100 according to the experts (this ETC does not mirror 1-for-1 but reflects the changes )
Legacy Trades New Trade 459
Trade 424 High Roller, This is a Trade Gone Wrong
PRECIS: We started from a July 2025 losing trade as below. Short calls are rarely a good idea.This is a ratio spread 8450/8650 calls
A Glitch as futures prices created a debit where we would normally expect a small credit, thus we pay 7.5 to roll into March (Feb: 2170.5, 1970.5×2,Mar 2159,1961×2)
We had a debit of 1763 ( total income 392 )
O, me miserum! Irrumator! (look it up, it’s rude)
Now 2452.5, 2,253.5 x2= 2054.5 Remember we can run this for years! (We may have to)
1805, 1608.5 x2= 1412 recovered more than £6,000 we soldier on.
1804.5 and 1604.5 (surprisingly enough!) 1404.5
Rolled on Thursday from 1200 to 1230 Credit 30
Last week: running a debit of 1107 (total income to date 392+30= 422) While this looks like folly it’s not a catastrophe as the income has been excellent relative to cash on account (margin)
Last week: 1525.5, 1331.5 x2 = 1137 It seemed the week was another big drop but it wasn’t.
Well, this is a horror show: 1974.5, 1774.5(x2) gives us 1574.5 Horrible but of course we will roll soon.
Trade 458 Big Vol? Bet The Farm- This is a Lottery
The longstanding view is always sell big volatility so let’s try to keep out of trouble with a very wide strangle. We sell the 8500 Put for 29 and sell the 10500 call for 29.5. Our credit is 58.5 and our risk is at 8441.5 and 10508.5. However if premium on one side trebles, we may adjust.
8500 put 19 10500 call 39.5= 58.5 Doesn’t feel right, frankly but here we are, the prices don’t lie
8500 put 1.5, 10500 call 112.5 On Wednesday the call went to almost 3x premium, so we could have closed out for 84, and either accepted the loss or sold a 10650 call for 38, and the Puts?Close out the 8500, for 1.5 Sell 9900 for 45 giving us 112.5+1.5 cost, premiums taken in 58.5, + 38+45= 141.5 and a new Strangle 10650call 9900put Part of me says sit tight………
Trade459 What Can We trade in a No Sense Zone?
What trades are bulletproof? Debit spread trades, condors and butterflies.Other trades may also fit this profile, but may not be practical for retail traders.
Here we go, we are buying 2 cheap (April) butterflies: calls: 9900/10000/10100 those prices 265, 208(x2), 159. Gives us a debit of 8
And for the blue team we have the put butterfly 9900/9800/9700, those prices 204.5, 168.5(x2), 139 gives us a debit of 6.5
So for a total of 14.5 we could make a decent profit, or not, anywhere between 10,050 and 9750 We’d like to land on either 9800 or 10,000 for the max 100.
Apologies to those who rightly point out I get the strikes in the wrong order most of the time. However you’re all aware the centre strike is where we are selling 2 lots, called the body, against the single lots that we own, which we call the wings.
Both butterflies now worth……… 2.5 each. We might as well stick with them, who knows?
Trade 460 Standing in Front of a Steamroller
……. Collecting pennies. The famous saying about selling options premiums. Well, we try to do better than that but in this jumble sale?
10800 call 23.5 9800 put for 26. These would seem to be safe from the mayhem with two weeks to expiry. We sell both, making a strangle, with risk ± at 10850 and 9750. Other strategies are available. Also contemplating a ‘ladder’, but that may be for next week.
Glossary:
There are two types of options: Puts, give you the right but not the obligation to sell the underlying. Calls give you the right, but not the obligation to buy the underlying.
When you sell those options, the opposite happens, with puts you get stock ‘put‘ to you at an unfavourable price (or not) and calls you get the stock you own taken, or ‘called’ away. If you don’t own the stock you need to stump up the cash, but in both cases with the FTSE index they are cash settled at £10 a point, so losses and gains are uncomplicated.
Please read the links below
For those new to options:
https://optionsinvesting.co.uk/special-edition-how-options-work-1/
https://optionsinvesting.co.uk/special-edition-how-options-work-2/
https://optionsinvesting.co.uk/how-options-work-page-3/
Contact: surreyhantstraders@gmail.com.
If there is anything you’d like help with, we all started somewhere and yes, it can be baffling. There are no stupid questions, give it a whirl. (AI gets things wrong, remember)
All opinions expressed here are not to be taken too seriously and all of the trades are for educational purposes only.