That Was The Week Trump Spoke Nonsense, Market Jumped, Then Woke up.
So this happened, the calculator had a malfunction as nothing made sense on Monday. By Friday it made no more sense, but everyone is pinning hopes on US military might. The market is like a ravenous crocodile anxious to snap at perceived low prices. Ironically that may come back to bite those drooling buyers. Cynic that I am, I do see a flight to the $ as the dollar index has climbed 3.6% in the last month. However, Silver has not enjoyed its day in the sun and has wallowed in the $70 region again. Oil has been the biggie and as one who has always advocated buying BP stock when it’s a good deal under a fiver, from end of Feb it’s smashed up from 470 to 536. A whopping 40%. Their Dutch counterparts Shell also enjoying this ‘little sideshow’ in the Middle East.It’s just business as usual.
I hope our followers have not grown disenchanted with the ugly trades. They are all part and parcel of pushing the boundaries, testing the waters, sticking our necks out etc. Sometimes the market fools us yet we have the flexibility to roll/adjust and not simply take a massive hit. After some years of trading futures, I am happy not to have the brutality of those instant losses, sometimes blowing through your stops. Nothing is guaranteed. We do of course have risk from outliers and we have to watch margin. That is cash we need in our account to cover risk as required by regulation. Assume you have a modest account you need to keep in mind that a sudden shock can put your options deep underwater but worse still, the margin spikes. Swings and roundabouts. This market is a lottery now.
In The Inbox
If you’ve ever paid for training you might consider Larry’s courses https://us1.campaign-archive.com/?e=5f15d5ff5d&u=21d4aaff645b54db21f6be1fc&id=19e80df596
Also from Larry a useful freebie: https://mailchi.mp/optionstrategist/a-volatility-edge-may-be-setting-up?e=5f15d5ff5d
Some cheer from Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-03-13/warning-that-it-s-2008-all-over-again-evening-briefing-americas
Distraction Trades
ADA was $0.2588 now $0.2597
XRP was $1.3665 now $ 1.3894 nothing to get excited or concerned about but surely the veneer has worn thin…..
DAX : 1 Win 4 days no trades Nett 250, but could have been a lot more. A peculiar buying frenzy, sometimes nobody wants to stand in the way of that crazy sort of action.
UK Gilts Were £15.95 now £15.74 This is based on the Vanguard ETF. Last week’s comment: Gilts down stock market down? What’s wrong with this picture? Flight back to the USD?
Silver: Using Wisdom Tree Physical Silver(PHAG) was $76.69 now $73.04 I have no idea but it should have hit $100 according to the experts (this ETC does not mirror 1-for-1 but reflects the changes )
Legacy Trades to 457, It Got and Still is Ugly
Trade 424 High Roller
PRECIS: We start from a July 2025 losing trade as below. Short calls are rarely a good idea.This is a ratio spread 8450/8650 calls
In summary we have taken in 286 (legacy 167.5) and our rolling has given us 106 We’re a very long way from home!
This week 8450c 1689.5, 8650c1491.5 x2 = 1293 It’s possible this could run for a very long time and it eats margin, but the rolling Credits may well produce 10-20% p.a.
Double Ouch! 1755.5 and 1557.5×2= 1359 Of course the FTSE’s up again so it’s to be expected. We’re only concerned with rolling to the next month until the market meets us.
Was: 1913, 1713.5x 2 gives us 1514. Given this is £10 a point that’s a hefty chunk of change so while this is an exercise in what NOT to do it’s also not a good idea.
Now: 1967,1767.5 x2= 1568 We will roll into March expiry during the week. This is, however deeply underwater.
A Glitch as futures prices created a debit where we would normally expect a small credit, thus we pay 7.5 to roll into March (Feb: 2170.5, 1970.5×2,Mar 2159,1961×2)
We now have debit of 1763 ( total income 392 )
O, me miserum! Irrumator! (look it up, it’s rude)
Now 2452.5, 2,253.5 x2= 2054.5 Remember we can run this for years! (We may have to)
1805, 1608.5 x2= 1412 recovered more than £6,000 we soldier on.
1804.5 and 1604.5 (surprisingly enough!) 1404.5 We will be rolling this hopefully for a credit 1432.5-1404.5= 28
Trade 453 March Loomed large
Time for an Iron Condor? It’s time to trade March, that is certain. You may recall an Iron Condor is a short strangle and a long strangle, or in other words, selling a call spread and a put spread, which are out-of-the-money. Call spread 10600 76 10650 59.5 gives us: 16.5 Put spread 10300 130 10250 115 gives us: 15.
Personally, I think the Credit from the Put spread is hopeless and I’d go for a naked 9650Put 36.5. Which, as you know, is a Jade Lizard! Let’s give both a shot. Max loss of the IC is 50-31.5=18.5
Our Jade Lizard gets spicy at 9600. Now 9650 put is 18 our credit was 16.5+ 36.5= 53, now 31+18= 49 ( We’re on the right side of things)
Now we have 191.5, 159.5 = 31 for the Call spread and 53.5, 48 = 5.5 total 36.5 a small loss
Ugh- calls: 349.5 306.5 =43 puts 21.5,: 19.5=2 total:45 against our credit 31
(Jade Lizard calls: 43, put 8 ) Jade Lizard doing so much better in this relentless bull run
Iron Condor calls 49 and 38 puts 191 and 164 gives us 48
Jade Lizard calls 11 and the lone 9650 short put 59.5
Iron condor now 15.5, 10.5 for the call spread, 144 120 for the put spread, gives us minus 29 total, a tiny profit!
Jade Lizard gives us the -5 for the call spread –13.5 for the 9650 put gives us minus 18.5 and we took in a Credit of 53, I’d probably close this out as there’s more crazy coming.
Trade 454 The Strangle Legacy From 450’s Loss
We had a disaster and incurred a loss of 109 -let’s try and get it back from Mr Market we sell March 10850 call, 65 and 10250 put, 48 gives us 113 What could go wrong? The revenge trade is always the right choice ( you do know I’m joking, right?) So we now have 2 losing trades that we want to repair. Can we stay in the market longer than it can stay irrational?
10850 call 154.5 and 10250 put 19.5 = 174 We just cannot get a break but let’s stick with it.
Now…. 11 for the Call and the 10250 put 195.5 Is this the craziest yet?
Now 2.5 for the 10850 Call, the 10250 put 120 A small loss but things may get uglier……
Trade455 Puts, it has to be Puts,Let’s Go Postal
So, it seems that risk is irrelevant and this market is headed for 11000+ I am of course not making a prediction, just being flippant. However this is a ratio spread and the ratio is 3:1, we sell 3 of the lower strike and buy only 1 long 10600 44.5 10500 34 x3 Gives 57.5 credit We have some mitigation owning the 10600 put but risk is at 10466
BOOM! We are devastated.
10600 403, 10500 332 x3 = 593
( For fun we will ‘ lower our’ risk to 10100 buying 2 of the 10450 for 30, selling 4x the 10100 at 15 so this costs: Nothing)
( For fun this is also now horribly underwater 2×300 and 141×4 = credit 38 ) OR, overall we have loss of 557
THIS is a salutary lesson in making assumptions while crazy stalks the corridors of power in America. Clearly it’s underwater but we will persist.
360.5, 276.5 (x3)= 469 Horrible!
With lowered risk we’d have 238×2 minus 68×4 gives us 204 so still a loss of epic proportions 469-204= 265 This happens when you get too spicy!
Trade 456 We need to be bulletproof
What’s the most common trade to use with defined risk, other than simply buying an option? Butterflies. Big bang for bucks, low risk of total loss
The daily chart gives us a 200 moving average at 9640 so what if we have a 10,000, 9800, 9600 Put butterfly? Those prices 114.5, 78(x2, ) 54.5 = 13
Now that’s cheap if the carnage continues. Max reward 200- 13= 187
Now 46,22,(x2)11.5 =13.5 Scratch but we’d run it for the anticipated crazy next week
Trade 457 Ratio Trio
A 3 legged trade and you’ve seen this before, we sell the near month option(Mar 10000 put ) for 46 We BUY the April 10200/10100 put spread for 217.5-184= 33.5. A credit of 12.5
Logic of the trade, we get a juicy April put spread and hope the FTSE doesn’t hit 9980 or worse before expiry. But…… we have a ton of er, options should that happen
For those new to options:
https://optionsinvesting.co.uk/special-edition-how-options-work-1/
https://optionsinvesting.co.uk/special-edition-how-options-work-2/
https://optionsinvesting.co.uk/how-options-work-page-3/
Contact: surreyhantstraders@gmail.com.
If there is anything you’d like help with, we all started somewhere and yes, it can be baffling. There are no stupid questions, give it a whirl. (AI gets things wrong, remember)
All opinions expressed here are not to be taken too seriously and all of the trades are for educational purposes only.