That Was The Week
So, a short week interrupted by a pleasant distraction and we hope you are enjoying the Xmas break. No new trades this week so a very brief recap on the week’s events. Or non events such as the Epstein Files which give a whole new meaning to the word ‘transparency’. The only reliable trait from the US is that everything is the exact opposite of what is true. Allegedly. So putting cynicism to the side technically this was a down week. However trading was as thin as the ham in a British Rail sandwich, so no point getting involved. So, one confession, I got back into silver recently and again it’s done 25%, but I exercised supreme caution and only have a modest investment. Have a good week.
Distraction Trades- Including New Asset ‘Silver’
ADA was $0.3759 now $0.3548
XRP was $1.9225 now $1.8491 Some speculation, and more, over Bitcoin and pals this week. But, how can we value them? Beats me.
DAX : No trades
UK Gilts Were £16.01now £16.04 This is based on the Vanguard ETF. So interest rates are still relatively high but the yield is decent if you think little old sterling is going to hold its own in 2026
Silver: Using Wisdom Tree Physical Silver(PHAG) $66.05 Here’s a fun chart(monthly)
Legacy Trades to 446
Trade 424 High Roller
PRECIS: We start from a losing trade as below. Short calls are rarely a good idea.This is a ratio spread 8450/8650 calls
Last week: 8450call 1226 8650call 1027.5 x2 gives us 829 (against our credit 266 or as legacy147.5 )
Was 8450 call 1249.5 8650call 1050.5 x2 gives us: 851.5 -Expect a roll to December for credit ± 38
Rolling to December gives us 53 This was the average from 19-21 Nov. So our cumulative credit from Aug now 319 or from Oct, 147.5. We are in debit of 737 ( 1,125 minus 931×2 )
Now 8450 1297 and 8650 1098.5 x2 gives us -900 At least there’s another all due soon
8450 1236.5 8650 1037.5 x2 gives us: 838.5 Roll coming soon, or perhaps the market will get spicy.
Was : 8450 call 1207, 8650 calls 1007.5×2 now 808 –our next roll should see us take in 35 or more
Rolling gave us 33 but now the real horror ….. 8450c1479, 8650c 1281 x2 = 1083
In summary we have taken in 266 (legacy 147.5) and our rolling has given us 86 We’re a long way from home!
Now 8450call 1460 and 8650call 1265.5 x2= 2531 Gives us: 1071 -Ouch again
Trade 445 Another Year -More of the Same?
9450/ 9200 Put ratio (January) 47 and 24×2. What is the logic of this trade? What, actually, is the trade? OK we buy one 9450 put and sell two 9200 puts. We thus have risk below 9000, at 8950. We speculate that support would be strong at 9000 and we don’t really want upside risk. Should 9000 be breached we’d look at buying the 8950 put and selling something 500 points lower.
Was 18 and 11.5×2= minus 5. Early doors.
Now 13 and 8.5×2= 14, gives us minus 4
Trade 446
Big ugly butterfly anyone? Looking at Calls at these strikes: 9500, 9750 and 10,000. giving us the prices: 447, 223.5(x2) and 65.5 That’s right it costs us 65.5 Logic of the trade, market may soften in the new year as events in the next few week may get crazy. You KNOW what I mean!. It’s a plodder of a trade but the reward is 250 if the market favours us.
Now 428, 202(x2) and 51 Gives us 75 We’re in profit!
For those new to options:
https://optionsinvesting.co.uk/special-edition-how-options-work-1/
https://optionsinvesting.co.uk/special-edition-how-options-work-2/
https://optionsinvesting.co.uk/how-options-work-page-3/
Contact: surreyhantstraders@gmail.com.
If there is anything you’d like help with, we all started somewhere and yes, it can be baffling. There are no stupid questions, give it a whirl. (AI gets things wrong, remember)
All opinions expressed here are not to be taken too seriously and all of the trades are for educational purposes only.