211 W/e12Mar

That Was The Week The US Hits more All Time Highs

Roblox Grab Coupang. 3 multi $billion IPOs, while Warren Buffett chalks up >$100billion nett worth this week. You’d be forgiven for thinking the world is enjoying a boom of epic proportions. It’s not. It’s in the middle of a pandemic, or if not the middle, it’s certainly not the end. However apparent it is, the imbalance of wealth shows no signs of abating. Thus the stockmarket and other assets are inflated. Housing in the US for those who can afford it, is off the scale. https://wolfstreet.com/2021/03/11/house-price-inflation-in-cpi-is-of-course-baloney-but-it-accounts-for-1-4-of-total-cpi/

A true calculation of inflation would mean raising interest rates which could derail the gravy train. However that kind of thinking may now be heresy. Opinions expressed here are based on personal views, and grave concerns for  fellow humans. While I would like to see reasonable fiscal prudence, it will be forced upon as, all things being equal. However I should maybe not read such things as in recent John Mauldin* missives.


So, enough political rambling, the market does not care who we are, or where our money comes from. Our(my) personal bias needs to be put into the locker. Digital currencies must surely remove personal bias, but then I like to sleep at night!

My prospective dabble is now £ 0.040 https://www.binance.com/en/trade/DOGE_GBP?layout=basic  I rated it a buy at 0.038 for no particular reason other than it seemed to bump along at that level.

Distraction Trades

Dax produced a couple of huge up moves and one could have netted something like 500 points. So, those days and weeks of non-entries are more than compensated for by a strategy that has fewer drawdowns. Those are, however, limited to 30 points

Trade 209 Melt Up or Melt Down?

Short iron condor anyone?

These strikes may produce the goods: 6350/6250 (101.5-77) for puts,  and for calls 6650/6750 (39-18)

Our cost is thus 24.5+ 21= 45.5.  Upside could give us a chance to sell 6900. Buying a spread does not eliminate theta but helps, and lowers costs too. Maxmimum profit is of course 100 minus costs. We need to lower those costs.

We could look at selling a 6200 put for 23.5 to help finance the trade as there seems to be more upside to follow the US 

So, selling the 6200 put lowered our debit to 22 Those spreads are now worth 1.5 for the puts and 69 for the call spread.Minus the sold 6220 put gives us 67. (Remember our debit was 22)We could brag about a  300% profit.            CLOSE!!! 

Trade210 Time For a Time Spread

Our calendar spread we  sold 2x Mar and bought 1x Apr expiry. The 6200 strike is an ‘area on interest’.  Cost is 71-(23.5×2)= 24

Now……… 2×2 and 27.5  We are losing 0.5. Run to expiry, and beyond

211 Straddle strategy 150 strike width makes it an iron butterfly

Say what??? OK, the straddle 6750– close enough for jazz, but expensive given our short time frame. We sell therefore a 6900 call and a 6600 put, limiting profits but lowering cost.

6750 60 – 9  for the  calls and 55.5- 16.5 for the puts 

Now it costs 90 with a max potential to hit 150.

Remember a straddle is a sale of a put and a call at the price of the underlying- know as ‘ at the money ‘.

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