That Was the Week Ending 06 October

FTSE:  This Week  – UP :  Monday- Friday  151 point straight rise every day-that’s 3 up weeks, 8 up days on the trot (one was flat but not down)

Daily Volatility: 10.8-9.273   from 11.4-9.8

FTSE cash index – open 7372 high7528 low 7372 close 7523  

FTSE volatility-  10.4- 9.98   (last week: open 10.4 close 10.4) 

What Trades Would Have Done well

TRADE 50! a nice quick turn around- a buy at 19,sell at 35 on Monday. I am struggling to find any reasons to trade-the numbers should ‘speak’ to you. I do not mean that to sound mystical but most of the trades were made as the option prices, or the strikes just looked ‘right’ and that comes with experience. Long calls curiously seemed to get all out of whack and rose more than was expected.The 7550 call went from 9- 27, defying its Delta of  0.16.

Market Volatility

From 10.4 to 9.98   What is crushing market moves? I asked this last week. http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/450013/heres-what-could-stop-ftse-100s-advance

Sometimes levels are enough to trigger moves. This may sound a bit ‘flakey’ but markets have a habit of finding key levels. Or is it just that we attach importance to such things? 

Summary

While this relentless bull market is defying all efforts to bring it back into ‘tradeable territory’ we have seen a double top, and a double bottom. OK the bottom seemed to be supported at 7200 rather than 7300 at the 3rd attempt this may mean this latest rise is the last gasp. Perhaps 7200 is another key level.  Or is it another roaring bull market? We have to take a view in order to trade. Thankfully with options we do not have to be right most of the time to be profitable. We don’t need to get wiped out by being contrarian either.

 

2 Comments

  1. I’m short this market but low volatility makes is too horrible to sell anything with downside risk as vol WILL explode at some point

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