Adam Smith Author of ‘Wealth of Nations’
This handsome fellow was remarkably astute and his thinking makes good reading today. However as a trader of the UK market (FTSE) I have to ponder what he’d think of the myriad of factors we have currently. I for one, did not foresee the market melting up in the most bizarre fashion, predicated,we are told, on the demise of the Pound.
Currency Moves and Stock Markets
I have not seen any correlation in the past but perhaps I’ve been looking the wrong way. Seems to me the stronger the $US,the higher FTSE https://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=usdgbp&ei=GXN3WNHqNcaAsgHs_JGwBA
I Don’t Make Predictions and I never Will
It’s dangerous to see any direct link of course and you cannot factor in QE and all the central bank chicanery that is at work. Just because something seems to be working latterly does not mean a thing. But we DO have some guidance from options.
Pricing in Uncertainty
The market currently is more smug than a talent show judge-there is ZERO uncertainty plugged in. And yet the world is about to get very very uncertain. An untested bunch of people will be governing the US. They may be great in business, but Mike Tyson was a great boxer who coined possibly the wisest aphorism ever. ” Everybody got a plan until they get punched in the face”. Many business people count luck as one of the key factors in their success. Timing, the right location, the right product,intellectual capital, lack of punch in the face. Luck, is not a factor in politics. We may need some
Future Not So Bleak
I’m always expected the next meltdown-it’s long overdue statistically but the esteemed John Mauldin has some interesting views http://www.mauldineconomics.com and says he is ‘Skeptically Optimistic’- in other words, hedged!
When I state my views they are highly cynical- I don’t believe anyone knows what goes on beyond their own microcosm. I have met economists who have no idea about simple money transactions, airline pilots who got lost in the supermarket and musicians who could not count beyond 4. I’m far from the sharpest knife in the drawer, but I do have a track record of sorts. We have not seen volatility like the early noughties and everything I have read tells me VIX https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/VIX:IND is mean reverting.
We may even see a triple digit spike. Put sellers are not getting bang for buck-I’m super cautious in my own put positions, but confess to being short and caught with a call position,which will need some astute adjustments.