That Was the Week The Crazy Continues.US dips, The Rest of The World Plummets
You know the score, FTSE is back at the pre-2026 level. However the real issue is what happens next. TACO, ‘Trump always chickens out’ has been touted many times and seems to be the rule. His people suggest there is a plan, and maybe there is. This one sided conflict has curried little favour even with the ardent Trumpers. Our own tiny island economy however is not as robust as the US. We have seen the best of the North Sea revenue and we face more austerity/recession/ muddle along. The big oil and LNG importers, Japan and China and parts of the EU are feeling the pinch. Maybe our own Starmer will win the support of the oil users in the UK, as a subsidy is proposed. One day all homes will be self sufficient with superb insulation, and self installed solar panels you just plug into your sockets*.
Expiry level this week was 10,013.23 -697.12 (-6.51%) This is the drop since last expiry, thanks to Yahoo. (The note everyone else). On the subject of being helpful, yours truly had to move to a new broker as the old firm after almost 20 years of my custom has closed retail operations, I had no complaints. Thankfully I now have an equivalent service whereby I pick up the phone to place trades, and I can see the account activity online in real time. Options trading is unique, as we trade strategies instead of simple outright buy/sell. Understanding that is why we do here.
*Apparently this is a reality but early days. Looking forward to a potential TV series ‘I’m a celebrity and I’m Energy Self sufficient’ OK that’s a stretch!
In The Inbox
Price Headley is a very worthy educator and there is also a free PDF“30 Habits of Highly Successful Traders”. Presumably these are all legal! This does allude to TSLA trades but the principles will be relevant and we can of course trade UK equity options https://www.ice.com/report/265 scroll down the list if you seek some of the spicy action in BP!
Also, the Patient Investor/ Incredible Charts has some more gloom: https://thepatientinvestor.com/index.php/2026/03/21/us-market-snapshot-16/
Distraction Trades
ADA was $0.2597 now $0.2646
XRP was $ 1.3894 now $1.4421 nothing to get excited or concerned about
DAX : 3 no entries 2 wins nett 400 Remember this only trades within 30 minutes of market open, so it missed some monster trades.
UK Gilts Were £15.74 now £15.50 This is based on the Vanguard ETF. Last week’s comment: Gilts down stock market down? What’s wrong with this picture again? Flight back to the USD?
Silver: Using Wisdom Tree Physical Silver(PHAG) was $73.04 now $63.75 I had another go at $64.10 so we wait to collect a whopping profit of £40! It’s a smaller position, but I have no idea, it should have hit $100 according to the experts (this ETC does not mirror 1-for-1 but reflects the changes )
Legacy Trades 4 Wins One Horrible Loser, Overall Some Gains
Trade 424 High Roller
PRECIS: We start from a July 2025 losing trade as below. Short calls are rarely a good idea.This is a ratio spread 8450/8650 calls
In summary we have taken in 286 (legacy 167.5) and our rolling has given us 106 We’re a very long way from home!
This week 8450c 1689.5, 8650c1491.5 x2 = 1293 It’s possible this could run for a very long time and it eats margin, but the rolling Credits may well produce 10-20% p.a.
Double Ouch! 1755.5 and 1557.5×2= 1359 Of course the FTSE’s up again so it’s to be expected. We’re only concerned with rolling to the next month until the market meets us.
Was: 1913, 1713.5x 2 gives us 1514. Given this is £10 a point that’s a hefty chunk of change so while this is an exercise in what NOT to do it’s also not a good idea.
Now: 1967,1767.5 x2= 1568 We will roll into March expiry during the week. This is, however deeply underwater.
A Glitch as futures prices created a debit where we would normally expect a small credit, thus we pay 7.5 to roll into March (Feb: 2170.5, 1970.5×2,Mar 2159,1961×2)
We now have debit of 1763 ( total income 392 )
O, me miserum! Irrumator! (look it up, it’s rude)
Now 2452.5, 2,253.5 x2= 2054.5 Remember we can run this for years! (We may have to)
1805, 1608.5 x2= 1412 recovered more than £6,000 we soldier on.
1804.5 and 1604.5 (surprisingly enough!) 1404.5 We will be rolling this hopefully for a credit 1432.5-1404.5= 28
Rolled on Thursday from 1200 to 1230 Credit 30
Now running a debit of 1107 (total income to date 392+30= 422) While this looks like folly it’s not a catastrophe as the income has been excellent relative to cash on account (margin)
Trade 453 March Loomed large
Time for an Iron Condor? It’s time to trade March, that is certain. You may recall an Iron Condor is a short strangle and a long strangle, or in other words, selling a call spread and a put spread, which are out-of-the-money. Call spread 10600 76 10650 59.5 gives us: 16.5 Put spread 10300 130 10250 115 gives us: 15.
Personally, I think the Credit from the Put spread is hopeless and I’d go for a naked 9650Put 36.5. Which, as you know, is a Jade Lizard! Let’s give both a shot. Max loss of the IC is 50-31.5=18.5
Our Jade Lizard gets spicy at 9600. Now 9650 put is 18 our credit was 16.5+ 36.5= 53, now 31+18= 49 ( We’re on the right side of things)
Now we have 191.5, 159.5 = 31 for the Call spread and 53.5, 48 = 5.5 total 36.5 a small loss
Ugh- calls: 349.5 306.5 =43 puts 21.5,: 19.5=2 total:45 against our credit 31
(Jade Lizard calls: 43, put 8 ) Jade Lizard doing so much better in this relentless bull run
Iron Condor calls 49 and 38 puts 191 and 164 gives us 48 Jade Lizard calls 11 and the lone 9650 short put 59.5
Iron condor now 15.5, 10.5 for the call spread, 144 120 for the put spread, gives us minus 29 total, a tiny profit!
Last week -Jade Lizard gave us the -5 for the call spread –13.5 for the 9650 put gives us minus 18.5 and we took in a Credit of 53, I’d probably close this out as there’s more crazy coming.
At Last!
Iron Condor flat out loss 50– premium taken in 31.5 which gives us 18.5 LOSS
Jade Lizard -and excuse my initial cynicism from long ago, profit 53 WIN! Sometimes it’s good to run parallel trades as with both we’d have still come out with a profit.
Trade 454 The Strangle Legacy From 450’s Loss
We had a disaster and incurred a loss of 109 -let’s try and get it back from Mr Market we sell March 10850 call, 65 and 10250 put, 48 gives us 113 What could go wrong? The revenge trade is always the right choice ( you do know I’m joking, right?) So we now have 2 losing trades that we want to repair. Can we stay in the market longer than it can stay irrational?
10850 call 154.5 and 10250 put 19.5 = 174 We just cannot get a break but let’s stick with it.
Was… 11 for the Call and the 10250 put 195.5 Is this the craziest yet?
Was 2.5 for the 10850 Call, the 10250 put 120 A small loss but things may get uglier……
Things got weirder! This is why we’d have closed out on Tuesday for 2 for the 10850call and 29.5 for the 10250 Put We started with a credit 113-31.5 =81.5 so closing this was a no-brainer
Remember: We can close out anytime and running to expiry rarely makes sense unless your short options are 3-4% out of the money on the day. WIN!
Trade455 Puts, it has to be Puts,Let’s Go Postal
So, it seems that risk is irrelevant and this market is headed for 11000+ I am of course not making a prediction, just being flippant. However this is a ratio spread and the ratio is 3:1, we sell 3 of the lower strike and buy only 1 long 10600 44.5 10500 34 x3 Gives 57.5 credit We have some mitigation owning the 10600 put but risk is at 10466
BOOM! We are devastated.
10600 403, 10500 332 x3 = 593
( For fun we will ‘ lower our’ risk to 10100 buying 2 of the 10450 for 30, selling 4x the 10100 at 15 so this costs: Nothing)
( For fun this is also now horribly underwater 2×300 and 141×4 = credit 38 ) OR, overall we have loss of 557
THIS is a salutary lesson in making assumptions while crazy stalks the corridors of power in America. Clearly it’s underwater but we will persist.
360.5, 276.5 (x3)= 469 Horrible!
With lowered risk we’d have 238×2 minus 68×4 gives us 204 so still a loss of epic proportions 469-204= 265 This happens when you get too spicy!
Again Tuesday was our chance to close out (137×3)= 411 – 215.5= 195.5 minus our initial credit 57.5= 138 Horrible LOSS
Trade 456 We need to be bulletproof
What’s the most common trade to use with defined risk, other than simply buying an option? Butterflies. Big bang for bucks, low risk of total loss
The daily chart gives us a 200 moving average at 9640 so what if we have a 10,000, 9800, 9600 Put butterfly? Those prices 114.5, 78(x2, ) 54.5 = 13
Now that’s cheap if the carnage continues. Max reward 200- 13= 187
Now 46,22,(x2)11.5 =13.5 Scratch but we’d run it for the anticipated crazy next week
Closing out on Thursday, 29, 3.5(x2), 0.5= 22.5 WIN! ( well it’s not exactly the Moon on a stick, but…)
Trade 457 Ratio Trio
A 3 legged trade and you’ve seen this before, we sell the near month option(Mar 10000 Put ) for 46 We BUY the April 10200/10100 Put spread for 217.5-184= 33.5. A credit of 12.5
Logic of the trade, we get a juicy April Put spread and hope the FTSE doesn’t hit 9980 or worse before expiry. But…… we have a ton of er, options should that happen
Wow! Peachy expiry the March Put went out for zero, the April Put spread 383.5, 323.5 =60, plus our initial credit12.5=72.5 WIN!
Trade 458 Big Vol? Bet The Farm- This is a Lottery
The longstanding view is always sell big volatility so let’s try to keep out of trouble with a very wide strangle. We sell the 8500 Put for 29 and sell the 10500 call for 29.5. Our credit is 58.5 and our risk is at 8441.5 and 10508.5. However if premium on one side trebles, we may adjust.
For those new to options:
https://optionsinvesting.co.uk/special-edition-how-options-work-1/
https://optionsinvesting.co.uk/special-edition-how-options-work-2/
https://optionsinvesting.co.uk/how-options-work-page-3/
Contact: surreyhantstraders@gmail.com.
If there is anything you’d like help with, we all started somewhere and yes, it can be baffling. There are no stupid questions, give it a whirl. (AI gets things wrong, remember)
All opinions expressed here are not to be taken too seriously and all of the trades are for educational purposes only.