That Was The Week No Tyrants Were Toppled
So, with every passing week the World sees more appalling behaviour by men who can only improve the human race by leaving it. Evidence mounts of more corruption, lies, and betrayals with one. And the other sees his troop casualties mount as the ‘meat grinder’ method of warfare proves futile and horrific. Markets shrug and say ‘we see no risk’. A little wobble with the A.I boom and a spike in Vix as Thursday saw drops in UK and US markets. The level of buying at this valuation https://worldperatio.com/area/united-kingdom/#google_vignette means people are willing to pay higher prices as they say! No surprises then.
Bank of England kept rate the same 3.75% and there seems to be little relevance to FTSE these days anyway. Non farm payrolls will be next week as there seems to be a sort of shut down in the US. UK inflation is up to 3.4% and inflation must be the most widely derided figure.
In the Inbox
Some invitations:
Tech Wizards 2026 Conference( below) and weekly news by email https://timingresearch.com/newsletter/
https://timingresearch.com/st61-archive/
Jim Mellon’s wisdom here: https://masterinvestoruk.substack.com/p/jim-mellon-lessons-for-2026?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=2822697&post_id=185839029&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1fbdnd&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
And our old chums at SJ: https://www.sjoptions.com/navigating-the-world-of-options-strategies-ensuring-safety-and-success/
All of the above links are safe and also offer free subscriptions. Sorry again it’s nearly all American, but options strategies are universal.
Distraction Trades
ADA was $0.3105 now $0.2698
XRP was $1.6944 now $1.4103 is something horribly wrong with crypto?
DAX : Horrible week 2 no entry 2 losers 1 break even, Nett Minus 40
UK Gilts Were £16.03 now £16.01 This is based on the Vanguard ETF.
Silver: Using Wisdom Tree Physical Silver(PHAG) was $91.87 then $85.81 now $68.99 Allegedly there are physical orders for March delivery that cannot be met. In a normal world silver would be on the rise to $100, this idiot got back in again at $67.54 However, trading with Dutch broker Degiro has been good, with fast execution. And while this is a bit of a punt, trading fees are around £2. So, yes that’s a thumbs up for Degiro, given my experience over the years. Silver? Anyone’s guess.
Legacy Trades to 452
Trade 424 High Roller
PRECIS: We start from a losing trade as below. Short calls are rarely a good idea.This is a ratio spread 8450/8650 calls
Rolling to December gives us 53 This was the average from 19-21 Nov. So our cumulative credit from Aug now 319 or from Oct, 147.5. We are in debit of 737 ( 1,125 minus 931×2 )
Was : 8450 call 1207, 8650 calls 1007.5×2 now 808 –our next roll should see us take in 35 or more
Rolling gave us 33 but now the real horror ….. 8450c1479, 8650c 1281 x2 = 1083
In summary we have taken in 266 (legacy 147.5) and our rolling has given us 86 We’re a long way from home!
Was 8450call 1460 and 8650call 1265.5 x2= 2531 Gives us: 1071
Was 8450call 1521.5, 8650call 1322.5 (x2) gives us 1123.5
And then: 1684, 1484( x2)= 1284
Last week we rolled on Thursday of expiry week : Jan prices: 1795, 1595×2= 1395, Feb prices: 1812,1613.5×2= 1415 so, we sold the Feb position and bought back the Jan for Credit 20
In summary we have taken in 286 (legacy 167.5) and our rolling has given us 106 We’re a very long way from home!
This week 8450c 1689.5, 8650c1491.5 x2 = 1293 It’s possible this could run for a very long time and it eats margin, but the rolling Credits may well produce 10-20% p.a.
Double Ouch! 1755.5 and 1557.5×2= 1359 Of course the FTSE’s up again so it’s to be expected. We’re only concerned with rolling to the next month until the market meets us.
Now 1913, 1713.5x 2 gives us 1514. Given this is £10 a point that’s a hefty chunk of change so while this is an exercise in what NOT to do it’s also not a good idea.
Trade448, Jade Lizard Time? Feb expiry
Sell 10200 Call 122.5 and buy the 10250 Call 99.5. (Apologies this was incorrect previously) Sell 9750 put 40.5.
Tasty Trade aficionados will know that we sell the call spread and a naked put. Here we have more credit than the upside risk of 50, the width of the call spread. In fact the premium we take in is 63.5, we thus have risk only at 9686.5. So we don’t mind a 400 point dip, a rise but at best we’d want the market just below 10,200
Those prices: 159.5, 136.5, and 31 which gives us 23+31= 64. Our credit was 63.5 so….. we’re in with a shout
The call spread: 92.5, 70= 22.5 and 33.5 for the 9750 put so that gives us 56. We took in 63.5 and there’s 4 weeks to go.
123.5 and 96=27.5, and the put is 31.5 gives us 59.
Now 218,179.5,= and 14 = 52.5 Best we can do is run to expiry where the short call spread will be worth 50 against us and we took in 63.5
Trade 449 It’s Gotta Be Puts, and A Calendar
Struggling to find trades with modest risk/reward, so what we have here is a February short (sold) 9700 put for 28, and a March spread that we buy 9850put 84, sell the 9650 put 57.5, so we pay 26.5 for the March put spread. Giving us a tiny 1.5 credit. We now have risk at about 9500 and no upside risk. We may live to regret this, after a year of ridiculous buying ( IMHO).
short Feb 9700 put 29.5 Long March put spread 95.5 and 63 =32.5 We’re in credit 3 !
This week: Feb 9700 put 27.5, March9850/9650 put spread 89.5 and 62= 27.5 We’re no longer(aside from 1.5 at entry) in credit
Feb 9700 put 12.5 March Put spread 63.5 and 45 =18.5 Credit 6+ opening premium 3 =9! Doesn’t look as if the Feb Put will ever be in trouble
Trade 450 Classic Index Trade ….Strangle
10500 call 13.5 9250 put 13.5 For no particular reason, we have equal premium on either side giving us nett credit 27. We have risk at 10527, and 9223 ( 3.8% to the upside and around 10% to the dark side ) Given the precarious nature of everything it seems we need that big 10% buffer zone on the put side.
10500 call 18.5 and 9250 put 12.5 = 31 Hmm not what we hoped for, we took in 27 but it’s still 3 weeks to go, yet.
40 !!!!! SERIOUSLY???? The 10500 call just destroyed us at 40! 9250 put 5.5
[ We could adjust, by moving the call up to 10550, cost 15, selling another put 10100 37.5, buy back the 9250 for 5.5.] We will track both. Risk now getting spicy.
Trade 451 Struggling to Pick a Strategy(Feb expiry)
We ladder or ratio into a butterfly. Of sorts. Say what? We buy a put ratio spread buying the 10200 put,118.5, selling 2 of the 10000puts 60.5×2. Then, we buy the 9800 put, 36.5, and sell 2 of the 9500puts 18.5×2. This gives us 2.5 and 0.5 = Credit 3 We stand to make a profit anywhere from 10,200- 9810 and risk at 9500. It’s zero cost low risk possible 200 max profit. So, we have no upside risk, modest profit potential. We cannot have upside risk. But we need some skin in the game. I foresee an accommodating market for the trade. I also have little idea where we go next. Positivity is much needed while all around are doing ok against your own judgement
Now 54, 27×2, 15.5, 8.5×2 Gives us minus 1.5 but Credit 3 to open -high finance.
Trade452 Straddle, Anyone?
A snapshot of the FTSE options chain: https://www.ice.com/report/265 We see the 10,400 straddle and we want to sell the call and the put. The numbers from left to right, 83 is the price of the call, 0 is intra day volume. 5,810 is Open Interest (the number of lots in existence). Next, 10400 is our strike, 119 is the price for the Put, 0 volume, and 12 is Open Interest( or lack of interest in this case).
So we sell both and take in 83+119= 202, so we have risk at 10600 and 10200 It’s bold it’s risky it’s probably not a good idea but we may see how well taking the opposing position might transpire. Remember we can close out at any time so if we get a very slow day, theta might gift us 20 or so.
For those new to options:
https://optionsinvesting.co.uk/special-edition-how-options-work-1/
https://optionsinvesting.co.uk/special-edition-how-options-work-2/
https://optionsinvesting.co.uk/how-options-work-page-3/
Contact: surreyhantstraders@gmail.com.
If there is anything you’d like help with, we all started somewhere and yes, it can be baffling. There are no stupid questions, give it a whirl. (AI gets things wrong, remember)
All opinions expressed here are not to be taken too seriously and all of the trades are for educational purposes only.