That Was The Week Trump Bombed Another Oil Rich Country
So, welcome to another year of mayhem vulgarity confusion and chaos. However the markets seem to be more robust than is reasonably sensible. We got used to the old expression ‘buy the f’ing dip’, but now it seems there are not even dips of any note. 2025 gave us 149 up days and 101 down days. In fact down days >0.5% are rarer than hens’ teeth. However, can we take these numbers as being statistically relevant? Is 2026 going to be the year that brings back the balance in the ‘Force’? It may well be wishful thinking to believe in the old adages, and when being ‘ in the loop’ becomes a matter of finding where the heck the loop actually is. It may be unhelpful to have biases. Wait. It’s really unhelpful to have biases.
The market, however is simply an exchange of values, when it’s cheap you buy, when it’s expensive you sell. That requires a degree of pragmatism that gets you into trades but when the conditions change you can easily find yourself in a loss. Do you then compound the misery, and declare you were right on the trade wrong on the entry? It’s a well proven adage that we ‘learn nothing when we win’. Learning is our aim.
A New Era? Auntie Beeb has a look for us
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c87r05143dzo
The mainstream BBC has such disdain for the world of finance and often used to quote the footsie incorrectly, or not at all. Volumes again were of course laughably thin this week but the idea of FTSE being value at this level makes little sense. Time and again the government talks about growth and the outcome is generally dire. Government spending is counterproductive, the private sector drives the economy. Meddling from Westminster costs us with repeated epic failures of public works like railways, nuclear energy and other infrastructure. Optimistic, moi?
Options News
iVolatility tells us:
Bloomberg reports that individual investors accounted for more than 30% of all options volume in 2025, with 0DTEs becoming the preferred investment option for retail traders. The surge of retail participation in markets, combined with the growing gamification of markets, makes it likely that the popularity of 0DTE options will continue to grow in the years to come. Gamification? That is not us. Try rolling or adjusting a 0dte option position. It’s another world but we are slow and steady. We may take a look in due course.
Distraction Trades- Including New Asset ‘Silver’
ADA was $0.3548 now $0.3843
XRP was $1.8491now $2.0003 Some speculation, and more, over Bitcoin and pals this week. But, how can we value them? Beats me.
DAX : No trades in this thin week
UK Gilts Were £16.04 now £16.03 This is based on the Vanguard ETF. So interest rates are still relatively high but the yield is decent if you think little old sterling is going to hold its own in 2026
Silver: Using Wisdom Tree Physical Silver(PHAG) $66.05 Here’s a fun chart(monthly)
Silver : $65.48 at one point it hit $69.80 ( I held silver for 3 years at $28 and it did nothing, nice to be in albeit a small portion)
Legacy Trades to 447
Trade 424 High Roller
PRECIS: We start from a losing trade as below. Short calls are rarely a good idea.This is a ratio spread 8450/8650 calls
Rolling to December gives us 53 This was the average from 19-21 Nov. So our cumulative credit from Aug now 319 or from Oct, 147.5. We are in debit of 737 ( 1,125 minus 931×2 )
Was : 8450 call 1207, 8650 calls 1007.5×2 now 808 –our next roll should see us take in 35 or more
Rolling gave us 33 but now the real horror ….. 8450c1479, 8650c 1281 x2 = 1083
In summary we have taken in 266 (legacy 147.5) and our rolling has given us 86 We’re a long way from home!
Was 8450call 1460 and 8650call 1265.5 x2= 2531 Gives us: 1071
Now 8450call 1521.5, 8650call 1322.5 (x2) gives us 1123.5
Trade 445 Another Year -More of the Same?
9450/ 9200 Put ratio (January) 47 and 24×2. What is the logic of this trade? What, actually, is the trade? OK we buy one 9450 put and sell two 9200 puts. We thus have risk below 9000, at 8950. We speculate that support would be strong at 9000 and we don’t really want upside risk. Should 9000 be breached we’d look at buying the 8950 put and selling something 500 points lower.
18 and 11.5×2= minus 5. Early doors.
Was 13 and 8.5×2= 14, gave us minus 4
Now 7.5 and 5×2. Minus 2.5 -it could still do something……..
Trade 446
Big ugly butterfly anyone? Looking at Calls at these strikes: 9500, 9750 and 10,000. giving us the prices: 447, 223.5(x2) and 65.5 That’s right it costs us 65.5 Logic of the trade, market may soften in the new year as events in the next few week may get crazy. You KNOW what I mean!. It’s a plodder of a trade but the reward is 250 if the market favours us.
Was 428, 202(x2) and 51 Gives us 75 We’re in profit!
Now 480, 244.5 x2, 68.5 = 59.5 That’s not nice!
Trade 447
We really need some puts in the locker, but don’t want to pay for them, what’s to do? We are going to leg into a risk reversal, also known as a combination, which is a short call and a long put. However we start by buying a cheap put spread, long 9900put 53, and short 9800 put 30. Assuming Monday will be an up day we’ll look to sell a call and buy back the 9800 put. We’d just need a down day of 1% after that to make this a juicy trade. This goes against conventional wisdom which says the market is going up, value is irrelevant. We stand to lose a maximum of 23, so we’d like to win at least 50
For those new to options:
https://optionsinvesting.co.uk/special-edition-how-options-work-1/
https://optionsinvesting.co.uk/special-edition-how-options-work-2/
https://optionsinvesting.co.uk/how-options-work-page-3/
Contact: surreyhantstraders@gmail.com.
If there is anything you’d like help with, we all started somewhere and yes, it can be baffling. There are no stupid questions, give it a whirl. (AI gets things wrong, remember)
All opinions expressed here are not to be taken too seriously and all of the trades are for educational purposes only.