Trade 61 Christmas Looms

A Final Stab At 2017’s Awful Market-Trade? What Trade?

Awful? Yes this has not been a trader’s market-it’s been a buy fest- with more cash from cheap credit. I think nobody cares about the bill, what could go wrong? Are we scratching around for a trade?

 Recession in 2018?

We are no longer  talking about this  though it seemed almost a done deal earlier in the year. So, what has changed, and why is the perception of ongoing prosperity unmoved? We are finding better ways to do things. Smarter ways to work- self driving vehicles, drones,  robotics, medical advances, longevity. Yes there is a fair amount of good news-but the market moves on its opinion of the news. Thus disasters have a silver lining. Insurance companies pay out, new goods are bought, new buildings built, insurance companies look like heroes, and bump up premiums. The market wins again.We feel better about life and so continue to act in the same way.

Simplicity Cannot Answer The Questions About The Economies

Therefore we have many unintended consequences of this new era of tech. Who suspected prisoners would thus  have drugs delivered by drones? Who knew it would be possible to smuggle micro-mobile phones without detection? See

With every advance that is well intended, there will be abuse. Such is human nature. Most of us are good though.


I’m not so bullish as to foam at the mouth about FTSE, but I like 7650/7700 call ratio spread for zero. Margin required of course. We are safe up to 7750, and this may well be more than the top. I don’t make predictions, (and I never will!) but I see 7700 as a top. Anything below 7750 suits us. Thus if the market tanks we may just make pennies on the long 7650 calls. Here are the Greeks:

Filed Under: StrategiesWeekly Trade Idea

About the Author: First found out about options in 1995.From the arcane magazine Exchange and Mart! First trade- a covered call on VOD in 1999. Made 10%,VOD almost doubled. That's when I realised I was not a good trader,and I was forgiven thanks to the amazing world of exchange traded options

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  1. Terrapin Trader says:

    Tried to place this for a credit of 2 yesterday- close but no cigar and as the calculator shows the vol is just obscenely low. One big retailer has now been caught cooking the books. H&M having a torrid time.Who else is faking it? Is this the time for the ‘credit card max out’ coming to an end? Personal debt is shocking, and unaffordable as bloated egos continue to seek comfort in buying random tat. The best gift is time, freely given. The plastic junk bought to placate, or salve a guilty conscience is an empty gesture.

  2. Terrapin Trader says:

    should have known these ‘erberts would ramp up FTSE for end of year’s figures as there is NO volume to speak of. Hoping for reason in 2018(unlikely) and some volatility- almost certain when events overtake the dumb money’s apathy and ignorance of actual value. Meanwhile this trade has gone horribly against us- about time! We will make adjustments as and when required but this is probably going to run to expiry.

  3. nastynick says:

    according to CQG 15k lots traded in last 15 mins…

    is that reasonable volume ?

    eurostoxx closed on lows tho !

    • Terrapin Trader says:

      sorry just seen this- read what you will into other peoples trades-we cannot know the reasoning behind them.
      Like open interest it means nothing when taken in isolation-and are they all short opening trades being taken by market makers? Who knows?
      The market is a mystery, we just make of it what we can. enjoy,and happy trading.
      PS Never trade when you are unwell-currently I am unwell.

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