195(again) W/E13Nov2020 A load of Ballots

That Was The Week Ballots,Bogus Claims, Big Up for FTSE,and GBP. What?

ref: https://uk.investing.com/indices/uk-100

Writing last week I had mentioned that hand on heart if forced to pick a trade I’d have gone with the combo –short 6100 call long 5650 put. That went as well as Braveheart William Wallace’s last week in London (died 23Aug 1305– I checked!) Cutting to the chase, my pick was a horror, and confirms my wise  personal decision to be sidelined. My take on risk at the moment- it’s unquantifiable -the markets are a gamble to this sorry trader. We are used to the US hitting new highs, but to see FTSE smash up to in tandem with GBPUSD is crazy town. Thus, when you cannot see the wood for the trees, stay indoors. There may be bears in them there woods.

A Wealth of Distraction

An interesting article popped up this week about the velocity of money-self explanatory really, but the author’s site held the following predictions: https://tradingeconomics.com/forecast/stock-market

FTSE is shown to be mildly bearish and maybe this is right. We face Brexit and  HM government seems to be falling apart. Apologies it’s hard to make a disconnect between politics and the market currently. However, this trader cannot overstate the concerns with events at home and across the pond.

Should you like a healthy dose of crazy (in my opinion) Here’s little Nigel’s latest venture after propping up Trump https://fortuneandfreedom.com

We now live in an age of such gross disinformation it is just depressing. Maybe it’s possible to tease out some insights,and leave the political affiliations to one side, very far away preferably.

Distraction Trades

So here’s the problem. The blue line should be support, the oval shows the 5 min bars around 08:00. Fuzzy logic anyone? Previous signals in the early days suggested this signal was reliable, and precise. However market conditions are constantly changing,and the method maybe needs some interpretation. Tweaking in the light of a lower success rate is not on the cards. Knowing how well this has worked means looking again at how the entry tolerance needs to change, given a fresh appraisal of market condition. November the 2nd seemed to be key as the market character changed with a monster bullish move. Deeper analysis or lifting of strict criteria may be key. Exit is very far from fixed, of course. Stops aid limiting of losses but need managing when you have big wins.

 

 

Trade 195 Our Weekly Promise

Apologies are easy. So let’s bite the bullet, swallow the pill and cross the Rubicon. Other idioms are available

Amalgamation or cop out- the weekend strangler becomes trade 195 we sell the 6550 call for 6 and sell the 6050 put for 8.5  Just look at those Deltas- safe as houses, what could clobber us next week? Credit 14.5  with 4.2 trading days to go- maybe £3k in margin- the return would be 4.8%. 12 of these a year would do…..

 

 

Meanwhile if you think the world’s gone to hell, here’s the world’s ‘biggest band’ https://youtu.be/dyRsYk0LyA8

 

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